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Seasonal sales have about the same pattern every year, every week, or both. In some specific months or days, sales are always above average; and in other specific periods, sales are below average.
Seasonal sales typically are difficult to analyze. In good periods, it's hard to know whether good sales are better than usual; in bad periods, it's hard to know if bad sales are worse than usual.
Forecasting seasonal sales can be even more difficult. It's hard to picture any method that could generate a reliable sales forecast.
The most useful technique is to report, analyze, and forecast using deseasonalized sales.
Deseasonalized Sales
To forecast sales, we estimate the trend of the deseasonalized sales data, and then seasonalize the trend to produce a specific sales forecast.
Let's see how that's done...
How to Deseasonalize Your Sales
The idea behind deseasonalized sales is easy to understand. For each month of the year we calculate a Seasonal Index. This value tells us, on average, how much each month's sales vary from average sales for the year. Then to deseasonalize sales, we divide the sales for each month by its Seasonal Index.
The most important step is to calculate the correct value for the average sales. Specifically, you need to calculate the "centered moving average" (CMA) for each period in your historical data. To find the daily CMA within a week, the averaging period is seven days. To find a monthly CMA within a year, the averaging period is12 months...well, sort of.
Use effective KPIS system analyze past sales for specific time period for example sales rise by25٪ above than normal month like back to school, this event are held at the same time each year which makes it easy for establishing an annual schedule, analyze and value seasonal business
I especially picked up this question to answer, with a bit of surprise on your specialties in Business Development.
Sir,
With due Regards,
Approximately every single Business has its seasonal behavior and professionals use a term "FORECASTING AND TARGET SETTINGS" and on one similar product it always vary from region to region.
For Example: Let's talk about Hosiery Industry. Summer demands of Russia could be a lot more than the winter demands in Gulf.
You have to have a thorough knowledge of your production v/s target market and customer, your product and competitors, obviously a estimation of regional seasonal demands.
Fewest of the business individuals and group conduct their research before launching their business or product line up but gain their expertise to analyse seasonal demands.
None of the business is seasonal by the way, because group and companies work all the way along to set their forecasts, target, creating demands, ensure production and supplies right on time for peak seasons.
Hope I have met your level of satisfaction.
Best way is to analyze the last few seasons specially the very last one. Focusing on the newest trends in the market after the last season.
Seasonal business is natural based on country and region, it can be easily identified through the demand of products in the market during a specific season. Do porter five analysis or simply visit the markets.
