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To calculate OTB below things to be taken in consideration.
1. Sale target for the FY for existing + new stores (if expansion is in plan)
2. Liquidation/Sale - If planned
3. Opening stock for consecutive months/year
The calculation will be as follows:
(Planned Sales + Planned Markdowns + Planned EOM Inventory) - (Actual BOM Inventory)).
The BOM inventory should be as close to actual as possible.
OTB = Planned Sales + Planned Markdowns + Planned EOM Inventory - Planned BOM Inventory - On Order
I believe doing a bottom to up approach is better , to calculate from forward weeks cover .