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The commodity market follows the secular trend. If you look at the components of a time series, you will find that there are four distinct categories: the trend (or in this case secular trend), the cyclical variation, the seasonal variation and the irregular variation.
The differences are the following: the secular trend is the smoothed long-term direction of a time series. If we are talking about a 'soft' commodity such as agricultural products (wheat or coffee) or hard commodities such as gold or mined oil, then it is a secular trend rather than a seasonal one. The seasonal trend is defined by patterns of change in a time series within a year which repeats themselves
Example, 'The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline was about $1.15 through most of the 1990s. Since then, except for a period between 2009 and 2010, it has increased steadily by almost $0.20 per year (Lind, 2015)'.
The cyclical variation involves the rise and fall of a time series over periods longer than one year.
within my knowledge it follows both trend as well as seasonal pattern. Thanks.
