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With little information it is hard to tell. My best guess, PM due to Poor Risk Analysis/Management.
Without analyzing the whole scenario, it would be difficult to identify root cause of failure.
I can't tell which is the main cause from the provided information. Any of them can be the maing cause. The PM is responsible.
"Poor Risk Management" should be the main cause.
As for any project to run over budget if the risks are identified well in time and mitigation strategies are planned.
Actually the main responsible person for this project is the PM and he/she should be asked in all conditions where he/she is the one who choose agrees on the team. But:
2&3 can be a cause but in this case, there is a poor risk management where2&3 were supposed to be taken in considaration when the risk management team was analysing the project.
This can also be a negligance from the PM in term of communication between team members or insufficient requirements.
As I mentioned in the beginning, this all comes to the PM at the end where he/she is the leader of this project and should have reported and looked for a solution if any problem was noticed.
Poor Risk Management" should be the main cause as rightly pointed out by Mr.Kasim Husaini.
The reason is stated hereunder :
- The project was doing well means that the PM and Sponsor are competent enough and Option1 &2 may be eliminated.
- It is not "Bad Luck" but "Risk" which is the appropriate word to describe events that can have adverse impact on Projects. Thus Option3 may also be eliminated.
- Cost & Time over-runs are very common in projects and can be monitored and controled by Replanning the Project Plan as & when required.
- It is important to note that Planning is iterative in nature and PMBOK allows and approves changes to be made in the Project Plans at all stages of the Project Life Cycle.
- The Cost & Time over-run may have occured due to some unexpected risks that may not have been taken into considerastion in the Risk Management Plan which is a part of the Project Management Plan.
- The same can be done at this stage and project can be executed further as per the Revised Plan to make up the cost & time over-runs.
Problem is in the assement that "Project is Doing Well". If the project is over budget and behind the schedule that project is not doing well. Or probably time or budget are not critical factors for the project success.
As long as the statement "Project is doing well"is used I think denial of failure is the problem in this project
Based on the above information, we cannot tell exactly the root cause, however out of the above four the following sequence (starting from Most Likely to Least Likely) is as follows
1. PM
2. Project Sponsor
3. Poor Risk Management
4. Bad Luck
