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I beleive that luck exists. I also beleive that I will start to loose when I start to depend on it.
Some have it and other don't and that is just the way life is. We have to adapt.
Luck is the highest probability variable which when attached to hard work, it becomes success (chance). But as you rightly mentioned, sometimes this equation doesn't work because 'luck' is a probability factor.
These days just hardwork doesn't work unlike old days when the path and directions were just straight and you just need to just work blindly. But now, things have changed. There are many options and paths to choose to succeed. One must be smart to choose the correct path first and then work hard on it.
We have a saying that the one who has luck, beats and wins better than the one who has ability and skills.
However, I do not agree with the passive way of viewing luck as the "thing" which comes from the skies in a parachute or by a magician or a great savior .... I just do not believe in this even if it happens to X or Y ... it remains the exception and not the general rule
Instead, I look at luck in a proactive way .. that we can make our luck or at least contribute to making it happen.
This is much better than just waiting ... and not knowing .. if luck will arrive or not at the end !!