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Hard working new hire deserves more in given scenario.
hard working new hire. its easier to teach a young dog new tricks
I would of course promote the new hire.
I would promote the new hard working employee because that is better hundreds of times than an old bad and lazy employee
Promoting lousy long time employees sends a message that the system rewards lousiness specially when it stays for long time, whereas promoting hard working new hires sends a strong message that promotion is the reward for hard work not for staying long. This is the right message that should be sent to be properly received