What is a Delphi Technique and how it is better than other techniques in real world?

Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups. The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach

TECHNIQUE #2: Delphi Method

BASIC IDEA: Opinions in group settings can be Influenced  by many things, including the dominant positions of some participants, personal magnetism, "alleged expertise", and fringe opinions. Many times, this hurts the ability to have an unbiased forecast provided by other judgmental techniques (in particular, the Jury of Executive Opinion). The Delphi method attempts to lessen these potential biases when making judgemental forecasts.

PROCEDURE: This procedure is handled by a "Coordinator"

1. Panel of "experts" selected

2. Initial set of questions sent to all participants

- for example, ask them for sale and/orREVENUE estimates, likelihood that these estimates will be realized, minimum and maximum estimates + reasons for these estimates3. The coordinator then tabulates the results

- for example, expected or average sales, etc.

4. Results are then returned to each participant along with anonymous statements

5. Continues until little or no change occurs.

EXAMPLE: For the same information services company in the previous example, mainframeCOMPUTER forecasting using the Delphi method would be conducted by having the Service director (1) ask all participants to anonymously submit forecast estimates, (2) tabulate the results, (3) return these tabulated results to the participants, telling them to what extent there was general consensus, and asking them to state their reasons for any widely divergent estimates they had made and resubmit an updated anonymous forecast estimate, (4) cycle through stages (2)-(4) until a general consensus emerges.

COMMENTS: Benefits to this approach:

• Eliminates need for group meetings

• Alleviates some of the bias inherent in group meetings

• Participants can change their minds anonymously

Weaknesses:

• Can take a lot of time to reach consensus

• Participants may drop out

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NOUN

1. a method of group decision-making and forecasting that involves successively collating the judgments of experts.

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wikipedia.org/wiki/Delphi_method

The Delphi method is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.