ما هي الأساليب والنماذج المستخدمه في قياس المخاطر التي يتعرض لها القطاع الزراعي؟

Definition of Risk and Uncertainty

The terms “risk” and “uncertainty” indicate exposure to events that can result in losses. Although the terms are often used interchangeably, they have slightly different meanings. Risk can be defined as imperfect knowledge where the probabilities are known; uncertainty exists when these probabilities are not known. Many of the losses expected from the risks inherent in modern agrifood systems are in fact related to uncertain events for which there are no known probabilities, although subjective probabilities can be conjured by expert opinion (Jaffee, Siegel, and Andrews2010).

Agricultural Risks

Risk and uncertainty are ubiquitous in agriculture and have numerous sources: the vagaries of weather, the unpredictable nature of biological processes, the pronounced seasonality of production and market cycles, the geographical separation of producers and end users of agricultural products, and the unique and uncertain political economy of food and agriculture within and among nations. Managing agricultural risk is particularly important for smallholder farmers, who are usually already vulnerable to poverty and lack the resources to absorb shocks. Typical shocks such as drought or a pronounced drop in market prices prevent poor households from acquiring assets or making the most of the assets they have (Cole et al.2008). They push families into poverty and cause extreme hardship for those already in poverty.

Prevalence of Risks on Agriculture

Exposure to risk prevents farmers from easily planning ahead and making investments. In turn, risk inhibits external parties’ willingness to invest in agriculture because of the uncertainty about the expected returns. Improved management of agricultural risk has significant potential to increase productivity-enhancing investments in agriculture (World Bank2005). The “traditional” risks to agriculture in developing countries include inclement weather of all kinds (floods, droughts, hail, snow, windstorms, hurricanes, cyclones), pest and disease outbreaks, fire, theft, violent conflict, and hardships of the sort that farmers have always feared. “Newer,” less familiar risks have appeared with the commercialization and global integration of commodity chains, including commodity price volatility, input price volatility, sanitary and phytosanitary risks, the risk of social compliance, and so forth. Regardless of whether these risks are old or new, their sudden occurrence and the inability to manage them can push millions of farmers into poverty traps and undermine the economies of countries that depend heavily on agriculture.

Types of Agricultural Risks

Risk in agriculture can be further classified according to whether it predominantly affects the immediate production environment, markets, or the broad institutional context in which commodities are produced and supplied:

·         Production risks include bad weather, pests and diseases, fire, soil erosion, other kinds of environmental degradation, illness and loss of labor in the farm family, and other events that negatively affect the production of agricultural commodities. These risks have a direct, immediate impact on local agricultural production, but it is essential to understand that their effects are transmitted from the farm all along the supply chain.

·         Market risks can include volatile prices of agricultural commodities, inputs (fertilizer, pesticide, seed, and so on), and exchange rates, as well as counterparty risks, theft, risk of failure to comply with quality or sanitary standards, or risks imposed by logistics. These risks usually emanate from market actors (such as traders and exporters), and their effects are transmitted back to the farm.

Enabling environment risks can include political risks, the risk that regulations will suddenly be applied, risks of armed conflict, institutional collapse, and other major risks that lead to financial losses for stakeholders all along agricultural supply chains.

Risk Management Strategies

Agrarian communities have traditionally employed various formal and informal strategies to manage agricultural risk, either before or after the effects of risk are felt.

Ex ante strategies(adopted before a risky event occurs) can reduce risk (by eradicating pests, for example) or limit exposure to risk (a farmer can grow pest-resistant varieties or diversify into crops unaffected by those pests). Risk can also be mitigated ex ante by buying insurance or through other responses to expected losses such as self-insurance (precautionary savings) or reliance on social networks (for access to community savings, for example).

Ex post-strategies (adopted to cope with losses from risks that have already occurred) include selling assets, seeking temporary employment, and migrating. Governments sometime forgive debts or provide formal safety nets such as subsidies, rural public works programs, and food aid to help farms and firms (and their laborers) cope with negative impacts of risky events.

Mitigating Measures of Agricultural Risks

Each strategy for managing risk can be carried out through a variety of instruments, each with different private and public costs and benefits, which might either increase or decrease the vulnerability of individual participants and the supply chain. When selecting a mix of risk responses, it is essential to consider the many links between risk management strategies and instruments (Jaffee, Siegel, and Andrews2010).

To sum up, agricultural risk management strategies can be classified into three broad categories:

·         Risk mitigation. These actions prevent events from occurring, limit their occurrence, or reduce the severity of the resulting losses. Examples include pest and disease management strategies, crop diversification, and extension advice.

·         Risk transfer. These actions transfer risk to a willing third party, at a cost. Financial transfer mechanisms trigger compensation or reduce losses generated by a given risk, and they can include insurance, reinsurance, and financial hedging tools.

·         Risk coping. These actions help the victims of a risky event (a shock such as a drought, flood, or pest epidemic) cope with the losses it causes, and they can include government assistance to farmers, debt restructuring, and remittances. Government and other public institutions, through their social safety net programs, play a big role in helping farmers cope with risk.